Consequences of uncertain friction for the transport of natural gas through passive networks of pipelines
- Heitsch, Holger
- Strogies, Nikolai
2010 Mathematics Subject Classification
- 60J10 90B15 90C15
- Uncertainty quantification, semilinear systems of balance laws, Markov chain Monte Carlo, reliability of gas networks, nomination validation, spheric-radial decomposition
Assuming a pipe-wise constant structure of the friction coefficient in the modeling of natural gas transport through a passive network of pipes via semilinear systems of balance laws with associated linear coupling and boundary conditions, uncertainty in this parameter is quantified by a Markov chain Monte Carlo method. Here, information on the prior distribution is obtained from practitioners. The results are applied to the problem of validating technical feasibility under random exit demand in gas transport networks. In particular, the impact of quantified uncertainty to the probability level of technical feasible exit demand situations is studied by two example networks of small and medium size. The gas transport of the network is modeled by stationary solutions that are steady states of the time dependent semilinear problems.